UFC 79 Betting Preview
UFC 79 has all the big matchups to be a great betting night. In this piece I’ll go over the two biggest fights, and give you what I feel is the best way to approach betting on them.
Chuck Liddell (-105) vs. Wanderlei Silva (-125)
The fight that everyone has been waiting anxiously for is finally here. Liddell comes into this fight off of two straight losses to Keith Jardine and Quinton Jackson. It’s safe to say that lately Chuck really hasn’t looked like the Chuck were used to seeing. Along with Liddell, Wanderlei Silva has also lost his last two bouts. Silva dropped fights to both Dan Henderson and Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic.
This fight doesn’t really fit any of the criteria which would call for me to make a bet on it. The odds are pretty even, and Liddell is sure to draw more casual money from non-fight fans. The public opinion on this battle is really pretty even, and its hard to gauge where the value lies. Recent money has been coming in 5-to-1 on Silva creating some value in a bet on Liddell over the even opening lines. If I had a gun to my head, I’d take Chuck in this fight.
Georges St. Pierre (-200) vs. Matt Hughes (+160)
This is the matchup that really presents some great value for bettors. GSP obviously is a great fighter and should be the favorite in this fight. However, I don’t think GSP should really be favored by so much in this fight. Matt Hughes is 4-1 in his past five fights with big wins over BJ Penn, Royce Gracie and Chris Lytle.
There has been a lot of talk on the MMA websites and forums about GSP winning this fight very easily. According to the odds set on this fight (Hughes -175), the odds makers are giving Hughes a 36% chance to win. In my mind, I think Hughes has at least a 40-45% chance of winning this fight, so at +175 and higher Matt Hughes is a great value bet. Money has been coming in more heavily on Hughes of late pushing the lines closer and that trend will likely continue in the coming week leading up to their fight.
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I know I will be taking those odds on Matt. He said himself it gives him a better chance catching GSP this way instead of fighting him down the road in a planned event. Hughes definately wouldn’t have agreed to this match up if he wasn’t confident that he would beat George. I was hoping that the odds were even larger, but +175 is almost 2/1 money.
My opinion has changed a bit since I wrote this article for Kris. Wandy is actually getting 5-1 action over Chuck right now in terms of bets coming in. I will definitely be betting on Chuck.
Hughes is still a great value, although a lot of people are betting on Hughes at this point and it scares me a bit.
-Justin
Update: With Justin’s new advice in mind I edited the article to reflect the newest lines available on Bodog.
liddell and hughes easy money! cant wait for these fights guna be quality!
lol big wins over Lytle? since when was he a big name, no offense to lytle but come on, bj penn had a fracctured rib going into the 2nd round of there fight, and was completly destroying hughes before that, and i dont think beating a retired out of shape royce gracie earns him any credability, GSP does have his work cut out for him but i think training with Rishad evans prior to even being signed to fight means he’s better prepared for this fight then hughes, Chuck showed in his last fight his inability to adapt, he does good against guys who ground and pound, basically he made a career just fighting tito and couture, throw somebody in there with a better then average striking game and a decent chin and Chuck folds, like his 2 losses to rampage and his recent loss to jardine, i think Wandy is a bad match up for him since this guys striking is nothing that chuck has seen before, i think it’ll make chuck vunerable to being taken down where he’s a fish out of water, but with this fight chuck in my opinion has the heaviest hands in the game which always means he the punchers chance to stop the fight at n-e given time, bet odds make sense to me
$$ on Wandy & Georges.
wow wandy is favored by alittle but im not surprised this event will be a tuff one im not sure who im going 2 pick for my fantasy league
my breakdown of wandy vs liddell please read
Wanderlei has changed his lifestyle for this fight. It tells that this is indeed probably one of the most important fights of his career and he wants a victory bad. He has moved his family to “fight city” Las Vegas and has left Chute Boxe to train with Xtreme Couture. He is making use of great coaches such as Shawn Tompkins to help tighten his game and help him exploit the weaknesses in chucks game. Traditionally, silva is known for his ruthless chute boxe style of throwing powerful punches that sometimes leave him open for a clean counter. It will be a mistake going in this fight with that type of plan and I think wand knows it. Tompkins will be emphasizing different angles for wand to work with and also to make sure wand picks his shots more effectively. The plan will be for wand to go in aggressive but not homicidal but rather like rampage. Get into chucks face, cut chuck off, and frustrate him making him fight a fight he doesn’t want to. I think the fact that chuck likes to keep his hands low will encourage wand to throw kicks. Tompkins will have him working leg kicks that chuck was suseptable to in the jardine fight and wand is known for throwing nasty leg kicks (see yoshida, rampage fights). This whole gameplan will come together to frustrate chuck enough for wanderlei to take advantage of a mistake made by liddell and go in for the ko. For this blueprint to work, wand needs to be aggressive but relaxed at the same time. He cannot get too excited and try to go in a throw wild punches. We’ve seen him quite effective at this with his first fight with crocop and his fights with guys like quinton.
Chuck is back at his old stomping ground, the pit with John Hackleman and company. I think like many ppl chuck believes that the style favors him in this fight. That wand is a good aggressive striker that will come forward and make a mistake and chuck will catch him with a big shot. I think that this may be a mistake on chucks part. He’s been relying heavily on this style and basically felt that jackson and jardine would fall in the same trap. Rather than relying on one big shot, I think Liddell should mix it up by throwing combos with punches and kicks to really surprise silva. I think he also needs a more orthodox stance by keeping his hands up simular to his first fight with quinton. Now don’t get me wrong his stance was extremely effective because keeping his hands low helped him stuff takedowns but with wand, i don’t he has to worry about takedowns. I think chuck needs to push the pace a little more than he usually does and beat wand to the punch. I think this will really surprise silva and his team who are expecting chuck to back away the majority of the fight. If the gameplan comes together i see chuck frustrating silva and being ahead on the judges cards. This will make silva abandon his gameplan for desperation and do something reckless and careless and chuck can end the fight right there with a ko.
In the end it is very close fight to call. Both guys have great ko power and capabilty to end the fight at any time. If I had to bet money I think Silva wins this fight. I think he’s made the necessary changes for a good run for the title in the ufc. Now don’t get me wrong i wouldn’t be surprised if chuck got the victory. It’s gonna be a good one!!
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It is beyond the capabilities of a 38-year-old with a serious drug problem to “throw combos” all night and “push the pace.” If he could do that he wouldn’t have lost to Jardine.
In light of these limitations, I think it would be smarter for Chuck to try to follow the method that Henderson used to beat Wanderlei. Fall back on his collegiate wrestling background and fatigue Wanderlei on the ground to make him more susceptible to the one-punch KO when he’s tired.
I don’t see that happening, though.
Wanderlei TKO R2.
would like to see randy fight the pride heavyweight champion that would be an awsome fight
i would like to see the fight between randy and the pride heavyweight champion happen
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